Flyers - Lightning Pregame

The top two teams in the East face off on the first night back from the All-star break, in what should be a good battle if both teams come back from the break ready to play. The Flyers sit atop the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference with 71 points, while the Lightning are leading the Southeast Division with 67 points. After sweeping all four games last season, the Flyers have lost both of the previous meetings this season; both in Philly and both by one goal. The Lightning are playing in the third game of a 12 game home stand, where they are 16-4-2 so far this season. The Flyers have played well on the road this season going 17-5-3, and particularly well as of late winning seven of their last eight road games. In their last meeting, the teams combined for 15 goals and the Flyers' wasted multiple two goal leads.

Martin St. Louis and Steven Stamkos have been tearing it up against the Flyers this season. St. Louis has seven assists in the two games, including assists on every power play goal the Lightning have scored against the Flyers this season. Stamkos has four goals, all assisted by St. Louis, including a hat trick. Stamkos was on a hot streak over the 10 games before the All Star break, picking up nine goals and 10 assist. The Lightning penalty kill has been hot as of late, killing 16 of the last 17 penalties, the Flyers have yet to score a power play goal against the Lightning, while Tampa Bay has scored three goals on 15 power plays against the Flyers. The Lightning power play has been struggling since the New Year, only scoring five goals (5-43) in the 13 games. I expect to see Rolson in net who has gone 7-2 since being traded to the Lightning. He has not faired as well against the Flyers over his career, losing seven of his 10 games against them.

I expect Nikolay Zherdev and Jeff Carter to have big games against Tampa. Zherdev has three goals and an assist against Tampa this season. He was able to pick up those points despite limited minutes (10 per game). Since then Zherdev's minutes have increased since finding chemistry with Carter, their line has been the hottest on the team since the new year. While Carter has not found success against the Lightning this season, just one point he has a history of scoring goals against the Lightning over his career, picking up 14 goals and five assist in 22 regular season games. Carter is also the most productive Flyer when the team has more than three days rest before a game, eight points in six games this season. 

Stopping the Stamkos line and cutting down on penalties are the keys to beating the Lightning tonight. Stamkos and St. Louis have 12 points against the Flyers this season, while the rest of the team only has 20. Tampa has the seventh ranked power play in the league this season, and if given nine chances again the Flyers have no chance of winning. The Flyers also need to come out with a purpose tonight, they have had a history of struggling to get back up to speed after breaks. I expect Peter Laviolette to have his team ready to go after the break, and see the Flyers leaving Tampa with the win.