When I learned around 3pm yesterday that I had a ticket to see the Flyers final game before the All Star break against the Canadiens, I knew their was only one player that I wanted to watch, P.K. Subban. Even thought this youngster was playing in only his 60th NHL game, 46 regular season and 14 playoff games, he is already a common name to NHL fans. He started to build a buzz last year when he was called up for game six against the Capitals in the first round of the playoffs. He registered a point in his first playoff game, which was only his third NHL game. He went on to tally eight points in the playoffs, including three in Montreal's only win in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Flyers. So far this season he has 19 points in 44 games, but he has earned a reputation for being a little to cocky for a kid that has yet to prove himself in the NHL.
Subban came into last nights game on a decent run, he had scored eight points in his last 11 games rebounding from a 12 games stretch where he only had two points. The first thing that I noticed was the the fans at the Wells Fargo Center thought Subban was worth booing every time he touched the puck. I am sure this stems from the verbal "threats" that Mike Richards lobbed at him through the media earlier in the year, but I didn't think Subban was worth the energy to boo all night long. There was also a brief "Subban Sucks" chant late in the third period that got the crowd excited.
I have tuned into a few Canadiens' games on TV this year specifically to watch Subban, and a lot of nights I have been impressed with his speed and puck handling skills on end-to-end rushes as well as his willingness to throw a big check when the opportunity presented itself. This was the first game that I was able to see Subban in person, and I don't recall a single thing Subban did all night that impressed me. He threw a few small checks throughout the game, but none of them were anything unexpected our game changing. He also showed off his heavy slap shot a couple of times during the game, ringing one off the short side goal post on a rush in the 1st period, but it pales in comparison to players like Chris Pronger. The rest of his game was abysmal. He seemed to lose every puck battle along the boards, every time he choose to pinch in from the point the puck ended up behind him, on multiple occasions he was unable to keep the puck in at the blue line on plays that were not easy but expected of an NHLer, and he took a dumb penalty when his team was already down two men (the Flyers scored twice while Subban sat in the box). For the third Flyers' goal, P.K. found himself one-on-one in front of the net with Daniel Carcillo when Pringer fired a shot from the point. The puck did take a strange bounce and landed perfectly for Carcillo, but Subban failed in all aspects of a defenseman on this play. He failed to take the body successfully, he failed to tie up the player successfully, and he ended up with his back to the puck and the player as the puck went into the net.
There was a point in the 2nd period when the Flyers had an amazing shift that kept the Canadiens hemmed into their zone for what seemed like 3 minutes, I am sure it was only about half that time but it felt like an eternity. Guess which Canadiens' defenseman was on the ice... P.K. Subban. I counted at least three times during that shift where Subban had the puck on his stick and was unable to clear the puck or get it cleanly to a teammate. I was sure that he would be benched for his poor play after this shift, but the Canadiens' coaching staff put him directly back on the ice when the Flyers were whistled for a penalty a short time later.
Finally, Subban proved once again that he has a big mouth but no balls (or teammates) to back it up. On multiple occasions he found himself in a scrum and did nothing to defend himself or act aggressively beyond opening his mouth. Carcillo was given a 10 minute misconduct for punching Subban in the chest after Subban aggressively approached Carcillo in the aftermath of a scrum along the boards that involved Carcillo, Pronger, Benoit Pouliot (who started the scrum by taking runs at Pronger and Carcillo) and others. Maybe he is trying to agitate like Sean Avery and get under the skin of the opposition to get them off their game, maybe he is just a cocky rookie that has bought into the media hype, or maybe this is how he gets his edge and plays his best hockey. At this time I can't say.
Most night P.K. Subban shows me something good and bad, but tonight it was was just a bad night for Subban. Nothing seemed to go his way tonight, but that is part of growing in the NHL. I look forward to watching the VS feed tomorrow to see if my observations from the rink will stand up once I get to see certain plays from new angles. I would love to hear what you guys think of Subban and his game last night.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Anatomy of a Losing Streak
Lets take a few minutes to examine the current losing streak that the Ottawa Senators are working on. Two months ago today the Senators were sitting in playoff position, today they sit in 13th with only the Islanders and Devils keeping them from 15th. From Thanksgiving to Christmas the decline was slow and steady (5-6-3), but the Senators never came back from Christmas break. In the 13 games since Christmas, the Senators are 2-8-3, that is a total of 7 points out of a possible 26. The Senators have been especial bad to their home fans, going 3-10-3 over their last 16 home games. In the 13 games since Christmas, the Senators have scored 23 goals and given up 48 (-25). Their power play is 4 for 40 (10%) while their penalty kill has given up 7 goals on 40 opportunities (82.5%). Amazingly the Senators have put 418 shots on goal in that time frame (5.5 shooting percentage) while only facing 373 (87.1 save percentage). To add some perspective to the Senators' numbers since Christmas; Jody Shelley has a better shooting percentage on the year (7.7%) and Sidney Crosby scored 14 goals over a 13 game span this season (only 9 behind the pace of the entire Senators' roster). Brian Elliott and Pascal Leclaire have a combined goals against average of 2.98 and and a save percentage of .903 for the year. A portion of those numbers can be blamed on the defense, who are a combined -73 for the year.
Although stats can't tell us everything, it is pretty obvious to me that the Senators are dong just about everything wrong. I would be shocked if Cory Clouston makes it to this time next week.
Although stats can't tell us everything, it is pretty obvious to me that the Senators are dong just about everything wrong. I would be shocked if Cory Clouston makes it to this time next week.
Friday, January 21, 2011
Eastern Conference Predictions
As the All-Star break approach, we can start to look at the standings and get a good idea of who will make the playoffs and which teams will be in for a fight until the final days. We can also see which teams don't have a chance in hell of making it. The Devils and the Islanders are done. Neither team has shown anything to make me believe that they could put together any sort of run. Remember when the Islanders were winning the Atlantic Division? Yeah, they don't either. While the Senators are only 13 points of of 8th place, they are currently hemorrhaging points as they have lost 10 of their last 11 games. Their longest winning streak all year is 4 games, and I just don't think this team has it in them to go on the type of run that would bring them back into the playoff race. Toronto and Florida are two teams that I think could put up a fight as the season closes, but I don't think either team will make the cut. Florida has to deal with the Lightning, Capitals, and Hurricanes who are all currently in the top nine in the standings. Florida also has a history of fading down the stretch, and I don't see that trend changing this season. When the Leafs jumped out to a quick start I thought this would be the year that they returned to the playoffs, but as the season progresses I no longer think that is the case. They have only been able to put together two winning streaks longer than two games all season, they won their first four games of the year and then won four in row early in January. Meanwhile, they have had five three plus game loosing streaks, including an eight game losing streak at the end October that carried into November. I just don't see them being able to put enough winning streaks together to be ale to make up the difference.
Now teams that should have no problem making the playoffs; Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Boston, Pittsburgh, and Washington. All five of these teams have being playing consistent hockey all season, well except for the Capitals and their eight game losing streak in December. The Flyers have been playing fantastic hockey, aside from a few game that they let slip away. The Flyers are currently the only team with more than 30 wins, and they have an outstanding recored against the Atlantic Division (12-1-1) and the Eastern Conference (27-7-2). The Penguins put together a 12 game winning streak over November and December and have hung tight with the Flyers all season long. There is no reason to believe that they will fall off, even if they do drop a little in the standings while Sidney Crosby is out with a concussion. Tampa has been playing great hockey as well. The addition of Simon Gagne and the continued emergence of Steven Stamkos as a superstar, combined with the reliable contributions of Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis have propelled the Lightning ahead of the Capitals in the South East Division. The Capitals meanwhile are winning like they have for the past couple of seasons. They might not be getting as many points against the divisional foes as they are accustomed to, but they are winning games none the less. I see no reason, beside unseen injuries, that the Capitals won't make the playoffs. The Bruins have bounced back nicely from their embarrassing collapse in the playoffs last year. Thought struggling against their own division (6-5-3) they are 19-6-2 against the rest of the East. The Bruins have only lost three games in a row once this season, and that is the type of consistency that will have them set up for home ice advantage once the playoffs roll around. These teams should continue to swap places for the rest of the season, but I fully expect all of them to make the playoffs easily and that home ice will resided with four of these five teams.
Positions six through ten is where I think the excitement will be; the Rangers, Canadiens, Thrashers, Hurricanes, and Sabres. The Sabres have been able to crawl back into the race after a horrible start to the season. The Sabre stated the year 4-9-2, they went 8-5-2 over the next 15 games, and then 9-6-1 over their last 16 games. Although they are still not winning as consistently as they want to, they have been playing good enough to get back within seven points of a playoff spot. If they are able to improve their record over the next 15 games, they should find themselves in a tight race for 8th. The Hurricanes have been hanging around 9th place all year. They have pulled to within two points of the Thrashers, but their inability to play better then .500 hockey is preventing them from jumping ahead of the Thrashers. I am not sure what the Canes will end up doing, I think they could fade down the stretch or play good enough hockey to stay on the bubble till the end. I don't see them getting into the playoffs, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they did. The Thrashers have had a hard time winning games since mid December (4-7-3). This has allowed the Canes and Sabres to gain a lot of ground on the Thrashers, it has also dropped the Thrashers from 3rd to 8th in the standings. The Thrashers need to turn things around quickly, or they will find themselves on the outside looking in. The Rangers and Canadiens are two teams that have consistency issues. Each team will play great one night and then blow a lead the next. The Rangers power play is ranked 22nd in the league and their offense is barely in the top half of the NHL. The Rangers have been good at not going into long losing streaks, but at the same time their longest winning streak is three games. They are currently fighting the injury bug, and their performance over the next 2 weeks could make or break their playoff hopes. The Canadiens are struggling even worse than the Rangers to put the puck in the net with an average of 2.5 goals a game. The Habs had a bad stretch of games in December (2-8-0) but have rebounded nicely in January (5-1-2). As long as the they do not fall into an extended sump, which I don't think they will, I think they should make the playoffs.
Well now that I have gone through all that here is how I see the standings at the end of the year:
1:Flyers
2:Lightning
3:Bruins
4:Penguins
5:Capitals
6:Canadiens
7:Sabres
8:Rangers
Lets see what you guys think the final standings will look like. If we get enough responses, maybe we can have Potter to offer up a prizes to the poster that gets the closest.
Now teams that should have no problem making the playoffs; Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Boston, Pittsburgh, and Washington. All five of these teams have being playing consistent hockey all season, well except for the Capitals and their eight game losing streak in December. The Flyers have been playing fantastic hockey, aside from a few game that they let slip away. The Flyers are currently the only team with more than 30 wins, and they have an outstanding recored against the Atlantic Division (12-1-1) and the Eastern Conference (27-7-2). The Penguins put together a 12 game winning streak over November and December and have hung tight with the Flyers all season long. There is no reason to believe that they will fall off, even if they do drop a little in the standings while Sidney Crosby is out with a concussion. Tampa has been playing great hockey as well. The addition of Simon Gagne and the continued emergence of Steven Stamkos as a superstar, combined with the reliable contributions of Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis have propelled the Lightning ahead of the Capitals in the South East Division. The Capitals meanwhile are winning like they have for the past couple of seasons. They might not be getting as many points against the divisional foes as they are accustomed to, but they are winning games none the less. I see no reason, beside unseen injuries, that the Capitals won't make the playoffs. The Bruins have bounced back nicely from their embarrassing collapse in the playoffs last year. Thought struggling against their own division (6-5-3) they are 19-6-2 against the rest of the East. The Bruins have only lost three games in a row once this season, and that is the type of consistency that will have them set up for home ice advantage once the playoffs roll around. These teams should continue to swap places for the rest of the season, but I fully expect all of them to make the playoffs easily and that home ice will resided with four of these five teams.
Positions six through ten is where I think the excitement will be; the Rangers, Canadiens, Thrashers, Hurricanes, and Sabres. The Sabres have been able to crawl back into the race after a horrible start to the season. The Sabre stated the year 4-9-2, they went 8-5-2 over the next 15 games, and then 9-6-1 over their last 16 games. Although they are still not winning as consistently as they want to, they have been playing good enough to get back within seven points of a playoff spot. If they are able to improve their record over the next 15 games, they should find themselves in a tight race for 8th. The Hurricanes have been hanging around 9th place all year. They have pulled to within two points of the Thrashers, but their inability to play better then .500 hockey is preventing them from jumping ahead of the Thrashers. I am not sure what the Canes will end up doing, I think they could fade down the stretch or play good enough hockey to stay on the bubble till the end. I don't see them getting into the playoffs, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they did. The Thrashers have had a hard time winning games since mid December (4-7-3). This has allowed the Canes and Sabres to gain a lot of ground on the Thrashers, it has also dropped the Thrashers from 3rd to 8th in the standings. The Thrashers need to turn things around quickly, or they will find themselves on the outside looking in. The Rangers and Canadiens are two teams that have consistency issues. Each team will play great one night and then blow a lead the next. The Rangers power play is ranked 22nd in the league and their offense is barely in the top half of the NHL. The Rangers have been good at not going into long losing streaks, but at the same time their longest winning streak is three games. They are currently fighting the injury bug, and their performance over the next 2 weeks could make or break their playoff hopes. The Canadiens are struggling even worse than the Rangers to put the puck in the net with an average of 2.5 goals a game. The Habs had a bad stretch of games in December (2-8-0) but have rebounded nicely in January (5-1-2). As long as the they do not fall into an extended sump, which I don't think they will, I think they should make the playoffs.
Well now that I have gone through all that here is how I see the standings at the end of the year:
1:Flyers
2:Lightning
3:Bruins
4:Penguins
5:Capitals
6:Canadiens
7:Sabres
8:Rangers
Lets see what you guys think the final standings will look like. If we get enough responses, maybe we can have Potter to offer up a prizes to the poster that gets the closest.
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